KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by zenako » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:06 pm

GardenDM wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:55 pm The counter argument to the above is that the molds are crazy expensive in the first place and it probably makes more sense to keep producing DoD and CD than to start from scratch. But it is an interesting thought experiment...

Another thought is that relations with China seem likely to continue to worsen, so starting with new molds over the coming years could help mitigate risk of future tariff increases, shipping issues, etc. If it's feasible to move production to the U.S. or Mexico, it could also cut down on the need to fill a shipping container for an order to work out.
Molds do wear out over time and use. It is entirely likely that there are already some second-generation molds in use for the older sets, and given how DF has indicated they are phasing out some of the old dungeon tiles already, I suspect part of that is those molds are ending their useful life anyway and new ones would have to be machined with those costs.

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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by Erenor Silvershield » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:12 pm

Realarete brought some attention back to this thread for our new Gnomish comrade. I’m trying to figure out what the next lava rivers are going to be from Wildlands so I’m not waiting two years before I can expand and restock. I want to be ready once the KS hits the store. Wildlands is my first real experience with outdoor terrain and I’m very excited, but I knew immediately I’d want to create some of the gigantic builds that zenako and rabbit and Law put together with DH, but I don’t have the quantity or the cash to lay down a fully tiled 4’x6’ table yet. I went way over the top in the KS, but I think I’ll want to grab some of the rarer mountain pieces and an escarpment Megapack if that gets one more go. I can’t imagine DF restocking mega again for escarpments. Cavern cliffs are still damn near impossible to find, even on eBay. Maybe the escarpment trifecta will be the new lava rivers? Much like cavern passages, the escarpments are just so beefy and pricey...

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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by Law » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:31 am

Erenor Silvershield wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:12 pm Realarete brought some attention back to this thread for our new Gnomish comrade. I’m trying to figure out what the next lava rivers are going to be from Wildlands so I’m not waiting two years before I can expand and restock. I want to be ready once the KS hits the store. Wildlands is my first real experience with outdoor terrain and I’m very excited, but I knew immediately I’d want to create some of the gigantic builds that zenako and rabbit and Law put together with DH, but I don’t have the quantity or the cash to lay down a fully tiled 4’x6’ table yet. I went way over the top in the KS, but I think I’ll want to grab some of the rarer mountain pieces and an escarpment Megapack if that gets one more go. I can’t imagine DF restocking mega again for escarpments. Cavern cliffs are still damn near impossible to find, even on eBay. Maybe the escarpment trifecta will be the new lava rivers? Much like cavern passages, the escarpments are just so beefy and pricey...
It's so difficult to pull out a crystal ball on these things -- I don't think I'd have predicted that cliffs would have been so tough to track down, for example.

Still, I'd say there are a few things to remember.

First, I'd say it looks like DF is doing a lot to ensure that there are fewer (and shorter) droughts of product. While we haven't seen cliffs back in the store for a time, we have seen a lot of restocks, and more importantly it appears that KS7 is designed to be more manageable as far as keeping a good inventory available for most of the time.

So what does that mean?

Well, for one thing it should mean that if you want to take some time to add to your basic build collection, to work up to a huge table full of DF without emptying your bank account all at once -- that should hopefully be possible.

For another, more specific thing, I would hope that it would mean that KS7 banks will be consistently available. Banks combined with trays/mats/battle boards are going to be key for both filling a table economically (because you can mostly use the 2D surface but add sculpted areas where you can afford to) and giving you some cool build options (since banks can also be placed on top of regular floors for elevation variation AND for building rivers by placing them on water trays or mats. Banks were a hot commodity in KS6, but of course what wasn't? Hopefully the trend will mean that these key pieces remain available.

Based on what we've seen it the past, I'd say the pieces that should prove the trickiest would be the bling pieces that aren't super versatile or needed by just about everyone. Forest floors, for example, are just a core bread and butter set. Those I expect to be restocked. But the crab lily and glamourleaf? Maybe less often. I'd wonder about things like the Titans Tooth and hole knoll as well. Those are the types of pieces that seem a little more involved AND a little more unique, which in the past has been a pretty powerful disincentive to keep them around for ages.

I'm not really sure WHAT to expect for the ruins aka Arachachaehaheeaean Arches. In some ways those are the types of pieces I'd also expect to be harder to track down -- they're a niche piece, they seem involved. But if they're super popular maybe they'll keep coming back.

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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by zenako » Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:09 am

I would expect the special tiles like some that Law just mentioned to be the ones in shortest supply. They are costly to make and most folks only are likely to get one. A lot of folks already grabbed one in the KS, so they are less likely to fuel demand. Pretty much everytime DF ends up with a supply of extra packs in their order. Lets say it was a 10% margin. They needed 2000 packs to fill the KS order so they order 2200 packs from the factory. A number of those 200 "extra" will be consumed dealing with customer issues (lost shipments, defective tiles, etc.) That leaves some amount for the shop. When those are gone, ordering more packs then becomes an issue to figure out. The factory pricing was based on producing 2000+ sets, but if you only want to order 100, what would the price bump be (one reason the prices in the shop are higher than in the KS), and is it still viable. The more complex the tile, the greater the likely bump and folks are somewhat price conscious about this hobby.

Price things too high and they sit, since folks like them but consider what else they can but for those same $$$ invested. So do they order some restock and bump the price to cover new costs and possible not sell, or just order more stock for items they know will move and are more reasonably priced. Core sets move, special items sell out of the limited numbers they have, but still probably not a lot of volume.

So for escarpments and DH for example. Items like the Cave mouth and Spirit Tree are cool items to have, but not a lot of backers want too many of them. They are large and harder to store, have some specialized uses and are pricey. While plain forest tiles or escarpments are generic and those move a lot of units each time and sell out pretty quickly with each restock, so from a business standpoint, a no-brainer.

So looking back to KS7 - Wildlands. Some tiles that might be harder to get more of due to short supply of extras, lots of latent demand for those they do have in stock and added challenges to manufacture future production runs.

Waterfall tiles - (extra run for clear or tinted water portions) so more of a pain and once folks have some in hand they might want more, but how many more? The design is set up to work best with a limited number of tiers.

The Ruins are atypical tiles, standalone design for scale and form factor and not likely to be considered anything core to restock. Not unlike the Jade temple for example, or Marble.

Any of the tech might be short lived - Light Pucks, Foggers, etc since new or better tech might overtake those items and render them all but obsolete. If you want any, grab it now, since I would be surprised if those restock.

The minis are likely to be in short supply, and not too likely to get restocked. There are a ton of mini makers out there that they are competing with and while cool, they are just one more source (and an expensive one at that). I did get the LED enhanced Cerebus for Hellscape but pretty much passed on the minis in KS7 since I already have 1000's of them and just do not need yet another version of wyverns for example.

The pre-painted special funky trees are likely to be harder to get more of. Costly to paint, a pain to mold (I suspect), and limited overall appeal beyond getting a few to highlight a location with. Again some of the crush in the shop will depend on how folks are reacting to actual product in hand. If folks are meh about them, then they might last a little while, if everyone is raving about how cool they look, they are likely to go quickly.

Longer time backers are probably going to be looking to fill in the gaps of what they backed once they have product in hand and realize they want/need 4 of tile XYZ to build the feature they wanted and they only got 2 for example. I know that tends to be my buying process in the Shop for post KS restocks.

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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by Rabbit Burner » Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:44 am

Crystal ball are cheap as chips, assuming you got the right chips ;)

But one that tells the future now that's the holy Grail ...... no that's something else........

Anyway predicting the future is a tough one, but looking at what seems to be restocked and sold out quickly:

KS6 CD Cliffs
KS6 CD DH Banks
KS6.66 Lava rivers

So looking at these, the top 2 have an awful lot of modularity:

Cliffs can be used with Erinthor in mountains or cliffs (funny that) so not just underground builds even with the 50mm/2 inch scale gate issue. We got about 3 sets to use with Erinthor.

Banks are probably the MVP as they interface between tiles and anything at table level or negative space that can be rivers, swamps, lakes, or any battlemat a DooFer uses. Some promote the heresy that they can be used for roads.

Lava rivers have virtually no modularity, it is a lava flow. So it is a core piece, you cannot do a lava build without these. OK so you could just have a volcanic build with no lava but where is the fun in that?

So the moral of the story? get the highly modular pieces, the thing is they may not be known during the KS but reveals themselves in DooFer builds.
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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by Seraphis the Bland » Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:08 pm

You know, it just such a crap shoot, but it seems that DF and factory reshuffle how the molds are composed, so one configuration that they used quite a bit in the KS might not be the one they use for restocks down the road. If memory serves, looking back, it seems like the Mega packs are not offered as predictably.
Last edited by Seraphis the Bland on Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by jls304 » Sun Apr 04, 2021 4:51 pm

The mountain escarpments are sure to be popular but I think they will be stocked. I wonder how many stair sets one needs ? I'm starting to think 3 wasn't enough. The beauty of the stair set is it doesn't take much to dress up and make an encounter. I can think of some pretty epic elevation changes for a boss fight or just make the mountain staircase of doom !

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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by Seraphis the Bland » Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:01 am

jls304 wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 4:51 pm The mountain escarpments are sure to be popular but I think they will be stocked. I wonder how many stair sets one needs ? I'm starting to think 3 wasn't enough. The beauty of the stair set is it doesn't take much to dress up and make an encounter. I can think of some pretty epic elevation changes for a boss fight or just make the mountain staircase of doom !
Yes, agreed in full, I gaze into the tea leaves and speculate that the Mega pack won't be offered. But, time will tell.

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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by dice4hire » Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:29 am

I kind of hope the megapack is not stocked as it is really expensive. I think it is best to leave megapacks to the Ks and not stock them so they do not just sit around.
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Re: KS7 DF Shop - Rarity Speculation

Post by Seraphis the Bland » Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:32 am

That sounds fine, as long as the smaller pack configuration can get you all the pieces. E.g., the Mega pack is composed of part A + part B + part C, which could all be purchased separately. It would be sad if they had a hard time making something available like the Tangled Turf pack and there was no way to get the beloved Neetlegorse in any quantity.

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